This article explains a concept in the Strategy Canvas to help achieve success – Key Insights and Theory of Victory. It covers exploration of key insights to develop a theory of victory as a strategic narrative, with a broad-brush view of a historical example.
Strategy is essential to achieve meaningful progress toward an important goal.
It is a cohesive approach that includes:
- understanding the environment,
- choosing what matters and how to think about it, and
- developing and executing a plan to achieve progress toward an important goal.
Strategy expert, Professor Richard Rumelt explains it as follows:
“…the term ‘strategy’ should mean a cohesive response to an important problem. Unlike a stand-alone decision or goal, a strategy is a coherent set of analyses, concepts, policies, arguments, and actions that respond to a high-stakes challenge.“
Professor Richard Rumelt
Strategic narratives can provide the required cohesion.
But only if they are based in fact and are a clear assessment of the environment, the challenges and opportunities. While used in grand strategy and military strategy, most non-military strategies don’t include strategic narratives. The best and most successful strategies have a clear strategic narrative, and are simple rather than complex to explain.
To ensure all in the organisation can play their part well, there is a need for a clear and concise understanding of the challenge and what must be done to win. This is essential to provide an economy of effort and action, and avoiding activities that are unlikely to provide payoffs or contribute to success.
This is where the Key Insight or Theory of Victory matters.
What is Key Insight or Theory of Victory?
A “Key Insight” or “Theory of Victory” is the guiding thesis which is central to the strategy, and provides the core strategic narrative and focus for a strategy.
A “Key Insight” or “Theory of Victory” acts as the nucleus of a strategic narrative. It isn’t just a slogan or a mission statement. Instead, it is the fundamental understanding or belief that drives the entire strategy is the guiding light for all effort and action.
It can be simply framed as a central cause-and-effect statement:
“…when we <do y> or focus energy and achieve <x outcome>, success will be assured.“
And if not “assured”, it should be highly likely.
From a military perspective, a related concept from the blitzkrieg strategy of the Second World War German Army and modern day manoeuvre warfare is Schwerpunkt.
Schwerpunkt translates literally from German as “heavy point”. Like “key insight” or “theory of victory” it can provide a focus of attention, energy and effort for an organisation to achieve success as a centre of gravity.
In the process of strategy development, the Key Insight or Theory of Victory will usually (okay, should usually) follow analyses of all relevant aspects of the situation and environment. The key word here is “relevant”, and one of the challenges is to take a divergent approach to capture all that might be relevant, before distilling and converging onto the things you decide are relevant. The trap is in the subjective judgement of of things that are relevant, and mistakenly including or excluding from consideration. (Refer to problem definition).
Why does that matter? Clear understanding and judgement of the situation and environment should lead to a summarising conclusion of what actually matters.
What matters? The things that will help or ensure you will succeed.
This is the Key Insight or Theory of Victory. It should be simple and logically build toward the important strategic outcome you’re trying to achieve.
It can and should be tested, too. Once you have developed your draft Key Insight or Theory of Victory, test it in the negative. For example, if your draft is that “I need to eat more vegetables and exercise 30 mins per day, and then I’ll achieve my desired weight goal in three months“, try it in the negative. Argue against the logic of the Key Insight and get others to try too: if you can refute it by undermining the supporting analyses then you might need to reconsider.
Once you have a well tested Key Insight/Theory of Victory, build the rest of your plan using it as your guiding light.
An example: Winston Churchill and World War Two
For the first two years of the Second World War, the British Empire and few Allies had been fighting the German forces as they moved throughout Europe with the Blitzkreig strategy, aiming to establish the Third Reich.
Britain and the Allies at the time were being hammered. Beaten back across the European continent, Great Britain was also defending the home islands and anticipating invasion by the German forces. The Battle of Britain ensued in the skies in 1940 and Prime Minister Winston Churchill was trying to keep the UK and Allies together. And in Asia, the Japanese Empire was forcefully expanding what they called the “Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere”.
Churchill knew well the power of the United States economy and population could prove decisive, if the United States was to join the Allies. His mother was American, born in Brooklyn, New York, and he stayed closely connected to President Roosevelt, encouraging the USA to join the way.
Churchill’s theory of victory: hold on, get the United States to enter the war on the side of the Allies and they will win.
If he could get Roosevelt to have the USA join the fight, the Allies would have the industrial and military advantage to beat Germany, eventually.
I’m the end, Churchill was right. Even if he wasn’t the one to convince Roosevelt to join the Allies in the war. Japan attacked Pearl Harbour on 8 December 1941, and America immediately declared war on Japan.
And three days later, on 11 December 1941, the United States Congress declared war on Germany and soon commenced actions in Europe and Africa.
Things change. So should your strategy.
Nothing is static. As something changes or an objective is achieved, it may also be necessary to evolve your strategy.
Sometimes it’s a tweak, sometimes it’s a bigger pivot. And then, sometimes, you need to completely reassess your view and understanding of what matters, going back to the drawing board to build a new strategy and plan.
Churchill’s strategy had to evolve after the US joined the war. Their entry changed the equation, as Churchill hoped, but with one strategic objective achieved the focus of effort and the definition of success had to evolve.
The US mobilisation energised the Allies. But they weren’t a tool of their Allies: the US had its own objectives and Theory of Victory. Plus, in another part of the calculus, after initially supporting Hitler by attacking eastern Poland, the Soviet Union had joined the Allies and would push into Eastern Europe.
Churchill’s strategy evolved and it had the space to do so. It moved to focus on achieving desirable end-states to the war, and maximising the position of what was left of the British Empire in the post-war world order.
Like Churchill, leaders need to keep an eye on what is possible, probable and desirable, and adjust strategy and effort to achieve progress and intent.
The Strategy Canvas helps leaders to iteratively explore and develop a cohesive strategy. The Key Insight/Theory of Victory section is a pivotal section for the entire canvas and the output strategy. Download the Strategy Canvas now.